Khuzestan: a new theater of war?

Since the start of the war in Iraq, there has been a widespread concern that the conflict could lead to a regional war, involving such countries as Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel. It has caught my attention that the number of news items referring to this danger has been rising lately.

I'm not only referring to the Turkish desire to enter Northern Iraq, but also to the (apparently) growing tensions in Khuzestan (also called Arabistan), an Iranian province in which the majority is constituted by Arabs.


Source: Google Maps


"Iranian Arabs in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan in southwest Iran have expressed a strong will to split from Iran and restore their own state, accusing Tehran of suppressing them racially, economically, and politically."

I was bowled over when reading these lines in an article entitled "Iran Arabs denounce discrimination" on Al Jazeera. I knew that Arab separatist movements existed in the region, but these lines make it seem as if the whole Arabic population of Khuzestan is engaged in a struggle for independence. Does that sound reasonable to you in any way?

Well, I myself am quite sceptical about it. I don't question the claims of suppression or discrimination, but I do think that being suppressed or discriminated doesn't automatically make one aspire independence. Independence is a political ideal, not the practical solution that comes to the mind of the ordinary man. It is possible to spread such ideals among the people, but in order to do that, one has to have effective propaganda tools at its disposal. As far as I know, no such thing is the case in Khuzestan.

Secondly, the indifference of the common people towards this political ideal has in fact already been demonstrated during the First Gulf War (1980-1988). In those days, Saddam Hussein had expected that the Arabs in Khuzestan would join the Iraqi forces against Tehran, but this appeared to be a big miscalculation. Most Arabs did not join the Iraqi forces at all and a considerable number even allied with the Iranian forces!

Of course, things may have changed since the First Gulf War, but I believe that things have also changed since the war in Iraq. Confronted with images showing the brutality of war in the media everyday, I don't think many are willing to open up a new theater of war.

Gulf of Peace

A couple of days ago, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had the honor of being the first Iranian head of state ever to visit the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This may actually sound strange if you realize that the UAE has been Iran's largest trade partner since years. The two countries have a dispute about three little islands in the Gulf, but this doesn't seem to disturb their commercial links in any way.

It is well-known that the Iranians are not very fond of the American presence in the region. They feel surrounded on all sides. Indeed, almost all neighboring countries have pro-American governments and most of them also American military bases. You might expect the lionhearted, audacious Ahmadinejad to criticize Iran's neighbors on this point, but he is actually not as gutsy as he seems.

Expressing the wish of wiping Israel off the map and questioning the Holocaust, do not have any serious consequences, since Iran doesn't have any relations with Israel and neither with its American ally. These actions would at the most lead to disapprovals by Europeans and other countries in the world, but at the same time it would boost the regime's prestige in Iran and the region.

The situation is quite different when things really are at stake. Could the regime afford to be rude against its largest trade partner? Don't think so!
See below how elegantly the oh so ferocious Ahmadinejad addresses the issue of the American presence in the Gulf:

"We all wish that foreign troops would leave the region and give a chance to countries in the region to establish security in the region themselves. [...] With each other's help, we can turn the Persian Gulf to the gulf of peace and friendship."¹

Ahmadinejad visiting the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
source image: IRNA / balloons and text by Ponentin

1. Quoted in "Iran calls for 'Gulf of Peace'", on Al Jazeera Net, 13 May 2007; available at http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FA9EB904-7553-4641-B715-C394D2CCF0F1.htm (accessed on 16 May 07).